Poll: Trump Leads Biden in Key Swing State of Pennsylvania


Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania, according to recent polling data. A Marist Poll conducted from June 3 to June 6, 2024, reveals Trump with a narrow lead over Biden, garnering 47% of the vote to Biden's 45%. This poll comes in the wake of Trump's controversial guilty verdict in his business records trial, highlighting a significant shift in voter sentiment in this battleground state​.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. follows with 3% support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each secure minimal backing. The survey also indicates that 2% of voters remain undecided, underscoring the potential volatility in the upcoming election​​.

Among independent voters in Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden with 42% to 40%. This marks a reversal from the 2020 election, where Biden had an eight-point advantage among independents in the state. The poll also reveals Biden's waning support among key demographics.

Among Black voters, Biden's support has dropped to 68%, down from the overwhelming 92% he received in 2020, with Trump now receiving 23% support from this group. Additionally, Biden's support among voters under 45 has significantly eroded, now standing at 46% compared to Trump's 44%, a stark contrast to his 24-point lead in 2020​.

A broader look at voter sentiment reveals a majority of Pennsylvania voters believe they were better off during Trump's presidency. This perception of economic and social well-being is contributing to Trump's current lead. The Marist Poll's findings align with other recent surveys, such as one from AARP, which shows Trump leading Biden by a similar margin in Pennsylvania. This poll indicates Trump has 49% support compared to Biden's 45%, with Trump's lead widening to five points when third-party candidates are factored in​​.

Trump's consolidated support among Republicans and his slight edge among independents contrast with Biden's fragmented support base. Notably, Biden's negative job approval rating, at -26, compared to Trump's positive rating of +4, underscores the challenges the incumbent president faces in retaining voter confidence​.

This Pennsylvania polling data is part of a broader trend where Trump is showing strength in several key swing states that are critical for the 2024 election. For instance, similar polling indicates Trump is ahead in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, highlighting the competitive nature of the upcoming election and the significant shifts in voter alignments since 2020​​.

As the election season progresses, both campaigns are likely to intensify their efforts in these battleground regions, knowing the electoral college path to victory hinges significantly on these states. Trump's strategy includes frequent visits to blue cities and outreach to voter demographics that were pivotal in the previous elections, indicating a well-coordinated campaign approach aimed at reclaiming these crucial votes​.


  1. President Trump’s Conviction Will be Overturned and He WILL Be #47. The Democraps Need to GET OVER IT. THEY HAD THEIR CHANCE AND THEY SCREWED EVERYTHING UP. Now President Trump Has To Fix Everything they frigged up. Every one of these WH Dems need to be Fired and Not Receive Any Pension, Including Biden/ Harris.


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